President Trump's shadow is cast over this Sunday's presidential election runoff election, with polls showing a tight race between Warsaw's mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, and his conservative challenger, Karol Nawrocki.
The Associated Press reported that Donald Trump met with Nawrocki at the White House earlier this month and sent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to a meeting of CPAC in Poland, where she offered an endorsement.
Speaking in support of Nawrocki, Noem said he would rule in the style of President Trump. "I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol and listen. He needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?" she said.
"This is arguably the most important Polish presidential election since the end of communism, not only because the contest is so close, but because there is a palpable sense in Warsaw of how dangerous the country's security situation has become, with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russian revisionism in full view," Andrew Michta, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center, told Fox News Digital.
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Trzaskowski, backed by the current prime minister, Donald Tusk, received 31.4% of the vote in the first round. Nawrocki, a historian supported by the right-wing populist Law and Justice party (PiS), performed better than expected and was close behind with 29.5% of the vote.
Most experts and observers in the region view the race as a toss-up.
"Nawrocki has a good chance of winning the election. This would clearly demonstrate the Polish people's desire to counter the current government's liberal politics," Stanisław Żaryn, Advisor to Poland's current President Andrzej Duda, told Fox News Digital.
The conservative Law and Justice party recruited Nawrocki, an outsider with no prior political experience, to be its candidate for president to replace outgoing President Duda, a close ally of President Trump. The Law and Justice Party governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, until it lost parliamentary elections led by Donald Tusk's center-left Civic Platform coalition.
Although the Polish president is nominally symbolic, the president does wield the power to veto legislation passed by parliament, which could derail the incumbent government's domestic agenda if the president is of a different party from the prime minister.
Matthew Tyrmand, a U.S.-based Polish dual citizen who advises conservative sovereignty-defending political figures and parties across Europe, told Fox News Digital from Europe, "We in Poland, who saw the previous unchecked PO (Tusk's party) government from 2010-15, know how this ends if Tusk's puppet candidate Trzaskowski ends up securing the presidency in the runoff. Poland's tightened alignment with the EU will come at the expense of previously strong ties with the USA and the previous and now returned Trump administration. This will weaken Poland militarily and economically.
"This runoff is existential for Poland maintaining its multi-party democracy with the existent check and balance of the last 15 years of having, in essence, a two-party duopoly. The right-wing president, Andrzej Duda, has been the one check given his veto power to reject the Tusk government's agenda since the country's government turned over in late 2023 toward left-leaning (self-described and so-called by the compromised leftist media as centrist but in reality very left) Eurocentrists. If that veto is lost, Polish sovereignty will be a distant memory as Tusk devolves national competences toward Berlin and Brussels who have been his paymasters for nearly two decades, and he has been their ready, willing and able pliant stooge."
Duda utilized the veto power against Tusk while in office to strike down bills to restore independence to the judiciary, an issue that put Poland at odds with the European Union under the previous PiS government.
Nawrocki as president would likely continue the policies of Duda, further sinking Tusk's popularity as many in Poland feel that Tusk has not lived up to his campaign promises.
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A win for Trzaskowski means Tusk will have the ability to drive his agenda, with the new president likely endorsing his proposals, laws and ambassadorships. A victory for Trzaskowski will also be received positively in Brussels as he is seen as pro-European and in line with the EU's priorities of democratic governance and judicial independence.
"If Nawrocki wins, expect a tough fight between the Tusk government and the President, as they are polar opposites on a number of issues, especially foreign policy," Michta of the Atlantic Council said.
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The Warsaw mayor favors closer ties with Brussels, Berlin and Paris but will also look to maintain stable relations with the U.S. Nawrocki, who met with President Trump and Republican leaders in Congress, would likely push for even closer relations with the U.S.
While there is a rising number of voices that are critical of continuing support for Ukraine as the war drags on, no matter who wins, Poland's foreign and defense policy and its support for Ukraine in its war against Russia is unlikely to change.
Poland has been one of Ukraine's toughest backers in Europe, providing 5 billion euros worth of overall aid, including nearly 4 billion euros in military aid, since the war began.
Since the European refugee crisis of 2015, Poland has taken a tougher stance on immigration, particularly from the Middle East. Poland has been much more welcoming to Ukrainian's fleeing Russian aggression. Poland has taken in more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees since Russian launched its invasion in February 2022.
Matt Qvortrup, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University, said a Nawrocki win would be a roadblock to further European integration with another leader critical of Europe taking power.
"A win for Nawrocki would be unwelcome for the leaders in the most powerful EU countries, especially in Germany. It's not the signal they would want," Qvortrup told Fox News Digital.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
